WattOdds
energy yield uncertainty · source to meter

Wind · Solar PV · Hybrid · Battery storage

Energy yield uncertainty, from the mast to the meter.

WattOdds builds up the uncertainty of a renewable energy project one item at a time, from the measurement on site to the point of interconnection. Use whatever information you have, and get P50, P90 and P99 values you can trace back to every assumption.

Open WattOdds

Free and open source. Opens on a worked example.

Example wind farm

28 × 3.3 MW · fictional, ships with the app
P50
299.5 GWh/yr
P90
266.1 88.9 % of P50
Uncertainty (σ)
8.70 % 10-year average
Each dot is one of 50 equally likely outcomes for the average yearly energy at the meter over 10 years. The five pale dots fall below P90.

Every step from the source to the meter

Uncertainty builds up stage by stage, in the same order as an energy yield assessment. Each stage holds the items that belong to it.

Wind

  1. Measurement
  2. Long-term wind
  3. Vertical extrapolation
  4. Horizontal extrapolation
  5. Future variability
  6. Wind to energy
  7. Plant losses
  8. Point of interconnection

Solar PV

  1. Irradiance data
  2. Long-term and variability
  3. Plane of array
  4. PV conversion
  5. Plant losses
  6. Point of interconnection

Hybrids put wind and solar behind one grid connection and count the shared losses once. A battery adds storage and firm-supply stages, simulated hour by hour.

What WattOdds does

Works with what you have

For each item, calculate it, describe the site, enter a value from a report or use a cited default. The results show how much of the total rests on generic values.

Calculated Site value Site description Generic

81 items, each sourced

Instruments, long-term correction, flow models, wakes, soiling, availability, curtailment and more. Each item says what drives it, how to reduce it and where its numbers come from.

IEC 61400-15-2IEA PVPS Task 13

Odds you can act on

P-values for one year, ten years and the plant's life, checked by Monte Carlo. A ranked list shows which items would lift P90 most if you reduced them. Export it all to Excel.

P50 · P75 · P90 · P95 · P99

Hybrids and storage

Wind and solar behind one connection, with their correlation and the export limit. Add a battery and test each hour against firm-supply rules.

SECI FDRE presets8,760 hours

See a full assessment on the example, then start your own project.

Open WattOdds